Demographic Parity in TabPFN Predictions Across Causal Structures and Quantification via Counterfactual Fairness Metrics

Abstract

Abstract: Machine learning systems are becoming increasingly ubiquitous. These systems's adoption has been expanding, accelerating the shift towards a more algorithmic society, meaning that algorithmically informed decisions have greater potential for significant social impact. However, most of these accurate decision support systems remain complex black boxes, meaning their internal logic and inner workings are hidden to the user and even experts cannot fully understand the rationale behind their predictions. Moreover, new regulations and highly regulated domains have made the audit and verifiability o

Research Question

How does the demographic parity of TabPFN's downstream predictions vary when trained on SCMs with different causal structures, and can a causal fairness metric like counterfactual fairness be used to quantify this effect?

Verification Level

Descriptive public verification status only; aggregate claim counts are public, but individual claim records are not exposed here.

Truth-Engine Gate Verdict

This record has not completed Gate 2 of the verification pipeline (a type-checked Lean4 proof for mathematical claims, or a sealed-sandbox reproduction for empirical claims). It is a literature synthesis only. VERIFIED requires an attached reproducible artifact (Lean4 proof source, or repro script and results) before this status can be set; it is not derived from review score or claim count.

Quality Tier

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Quality Dimensions

Automated triage signals derived from public fields; not human peer review or independent validation.

Correction Record

Public corrections are additive records. Current status does not claim the synthesis is error-free.

Provenance